Good to see that business confidence has improved in the last three months, suggesting the UK will return to growth in Q2 2012. Despite a strong rebound in the Confidence Index, BCM (Business Confidence Monitor)supports the view that the UK’s economy will continue to ‘zig-zag’ over the next 12 months, with economic recovery still very fragile. Key findings from BCM Q2 2012 report include:

• The BCM Confidence Index stands at +12.0, up from -9.3 in Q1 2012 and the highest level since the second quarter of 2011;
• This strong improvement in confidence suggests the current recession is likely to be short-lived, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6% forecast for the second quarter of 2012;
• Businesses expect capital investment to grow by just 1.4% over the next 12 months. Improvement in confidence does not mean they plan to start spending cash surpluses accumulated in recent years; and
• Companies report that exports are 4.1% higher than a year ago, up from 3.3% last quarter and the strongest growth since Q3 2011.