Tag: Economy

We have a digital revolution in the UK, but lack the data and sector classification to effectively measure and exploit it. Currently its contribution is hidden away in the wider services sector, which makes up almost 80% of the UK economy. We previously explored this subject in Is the UK Missing a Trick? It's Time to Recognise 'Digital Manufacturing'.

Recently this theme has re-emerged following Sir Charlie Bean, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, arguing that the internet revolution has rendered Britain’s official statistics out of date. We thought it worthy of revisiting the topic, this time with supporting data from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

UK Growth - Digital Economy

The UK’s digital economy is an engine of growth

Next year the consensus forecast for world growth is 2.6% and for the UK, 2.5%. We are optimistic about next year, however, there are plenty of risks to watch.

Here are our thoughts on the outlook for the UK economy in 2016:

Stock Delta

 1. Oil PricesLower for longer

Oil has continued to tumble throughout 2015 as Brent crude and WTI crude are down close to 40% at 11-year-lows priced at $36 and $34 respectively. Forecasts for oil prices ranging from $25 - $60 per barrel; with Iran pledging to boost exports and OPEC holding a firm stance on their supply we believe that oil has lower to go before it starts to strengthen. 

scale-up image

"Scaling-Up" - Research shows that a large proportion of economic growth comes from a relatively small number of highly productive, fast growing firms. Here we share a link to Sherry Coutu's presentation on the importance of scaling-up for the UK economy.

At the end of 2014, we looked towards the year ahead and the risks which could have an impact on UK economic growth. Now that we are over half way through 2015, we thought it was a good time to revisit and update our thoughts. UK political uncertainty has gone, however the other highlighted risks noted remain largely the same.

UK Growth - headwind

In 2014, the UK economy grew 3%. Forecasted growth rates for 2015 and 2016 have faced cuts following a slowdown at the start of the year. Official figures indicated the UK’s growth rate halved in the opening months of 2015. In July, The OBR revised its 2015 GDP forecast downwards to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.5%. Other forecasters have made similar cuts. This year’s rate of growth is likely to be lower than 2014 but still a respectable 2.3-2.5%.

Here we revisit some of the domestic and global risks which could have a knock on impact on the UK growth outlook for the remainder of 2015.